Cyclones in the 21st Century: How They Changed
Finding Out What is Causing Frequent Cyclones in the 21st Century
Natural disasters are very common, indeed, and now and then, we keep hearing about them. Cyclones in the 21st century have been the most prevalent natural disaster. Their emergence is not what is bothering everyone around, but the problem lies in how they have drastically changed from the previous generations.
Tropical cyclones, especially typhoons and hurricanes, are currently at the top of the scale. The reason why cyclones in the 21st century have been going through a huge change is due to the consequences of ‘Global Warming.’ The rise in the temperature is what concerns people. Due to global warming, the intensity, frequency, and length of cyclones have changed drastically.
Global warming has been shifting the patterns in the overall distribution of these tropical cyclones. The extreme conditions of the weather have now become severe in many parts of the world, including the Central Pacific, Arabian Sea, North Atlantic, which also has a lapse with the US and Europe.
Increase in Average Global Temperature
One of the primary things which the climate departments of various countries have been researching is whether the temperature has increased in those regions where cyclones originally formed. Before making any judgment about how and why cyclones in the 21st century are changing, researchers have to study the temperature increase and its intensity right from the bottom of the root. Hence, the regions where the cyclones get formed are just over the ocean during the summer season at 30 degrees of latitude N&S (North and South).
Researchers have claimed that the average global temperature over the last century has substantially increased due to a rapid increase in Northwest Canada and Siberia during the winter season. The places around the Northern Hemisphere which have colder temperatures have started to become less cold.
The sea surface temperature has not increased in the seasons and the regions where the tropical cyclones develop. Although it is hard to precisely come to know how much temperature has increased in those areas and how it compares with the variation.
Observations of How the Cyclones Are Changing From the Previous Generations
The Rise in the Sea Level
The rise in the sea level has a huge human impact causing higher inundation of coastal levels for the tropical cyclones that have been occurring.
The Rates of Tropical Cyclones Increased
Due to anthropogenic warming and the overall increase in the atmospheric moisture content, there are speculations that the tropical cyclone rates will surely increase. The studies claim that, on average, an increase of 12-15% of the rate of rainfall will be averaged within 100km of the storms for about 2 degrees celsius in an ideal scenario of global warming.
The Intensity of the Tropical Cyclones Increased
On average, by a rate of about 2% for 2 degrees celsius in a scenario of global warming will increase. This change will also be applicable in destructive storms, assuming that there would be no reduction in the size of the storm.
Increased Greenhouse Gas Effect
There has been a huge emphasis on determining how the change in the climate has been increasing and with what frequency it is changing. The hike in the overall global temperature has been attributed to the increase in the immersion of greenhouse gas, which directly affects the cyclones. Since the year 1980, globally, the frequency of cyclones has been constant at 86, but slowly in the 21st century, this frequency is rapidly increasing.
A study in observing the cyclone variation and frequency from 1980 to 2018 claims that volcanic eruptions, greenhouse gas emissions, aerosols, and artificial measures have contributed to the variability that can be seen in the cyclones currently. These factors have shifted the trends of the tropical cyclones which occur in multiple areas.
Human Influence on the Change in Cyclones
Although global warming and greenhouse gases have been a major cause of the change in the trend shift of the cyclones in the 21st century, there are more reasons attached to it.
There has been a strong human influence, which has been a significant cause of the increased cyclones and hurricanes, especially in the Antarctic. The increase in the sea levels is also considered a way of how climate change (caused by humans) has impacted cyclones. The coastal region’s vulnerability to the storm surge of flooding is considerably expected to increase with the rise in sea levels in the future. However, it has been claimed that this kind of vulnerability is likely to depend on multiple factors such as the characteristics of the storm, etc.
The inundation levels of the coastal areas are likely to parallel increase with the rise in the sea levels. Even beyond the 21st century, there are projects that the magnitude of the sea levels will see a rise in the coastlines.
Future Projections
Scientists across the world have been studying deep into the changing behaviour of cyclones. However, there is a huge link. As per research, there is a chain that is being followed, and that is, due to the increase in human actions, there has been an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, which has led to global warming. Therefore, global warming leads to a rise in temperature, disrupting the temperature at the sea level. Finally, this increases the frequency and the intensity of the cyclones.
As per research, the future projection is that there will be an increase of 5% in the wind speed of the cyclones if the world ends up getting warmer by 2 degrees by 2100. Thus, even the speed of the winds of the cyclones can increase up to 300 km per hour.
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